【Trepa】Precision forecasting platform specializing in numerical forecasting / Rewarded according to accuracy rather than Yes No choice / @trepa_io
It is a new form of forecasting market.
Good morning.
I am mitsui, a web3 researcher.
Today I researched "Trepa".
🏦What is Trepa?
🚩 Transition and Prospects
💬 Forecasting market takes root
🧵TL;DR
Trepa targets inflation and government bond yields.Numerical forecasting-specific platformand provides a mechanism for rewards based on the accuracy of predictions.
Overcome the challenges of the traditional forecasting market, such as "reward only for hitting the target," "rough forecasting," and "strong gambling nature.
Trepa is expanding the participation of investors and economic enthusiasts by introducing a partial compensation system and encouraging elaborate numerical forecasts.
Founded in 2024, after winning a hackathon award and funding in 2025, currently in beta release and expected to be publicly available in the future.
🏦What is Trepa?
Trepa is a precision forecasting platform specializing in numerical forecasts. Users can post numerical forecasts on economic indicators such as inflation rates and government bond yields and earn rewards based on the accuracy of their forecasts.
It is a forecasting market platform like Polymarket in its category, but with a distinct difference from traditional forecasting markets.
In a traditional prediction market, participants bet money on the outcome of a certain future event and receive a payout if the outcome is correct.
The most well-known examples are Augur and Polymarket, where anyone can create and participate in a prediction market through a decentralized mechanism.
However, several structural challenges exist in the traditional forecasting market.
all-or-nothing structure
You are only rewarded if your prediction is correct; if it misses, you lose your entire lump sum. This makes the system risky for participants because partially correct predictions are not evaluated.Fosters rough predictions
The Yes/No format has a strong "just guess the general direction" nature, and elaborate forecasts and numerical analysis are not sufficiently valued. As a result, the value of information as collective knowledge is limited.Participant demographics are likely to be skewed
Gambling-oriented participants who prefer high risk/high return tend to be more likely to participate, and thoughtful investors and researchers are less likely to participate.Instability of correct and incorrect judgments
When there are cases where the result is clear or not, there may be a dispute over the Yes/No decision.
To overcome these challenges, Trepa has developed a different approach to the traditional forecasting market, calledPrecision-oriented numerical forecasting platformThe company employs a "one-stop-shop" system.
Partial compensation structure
Rewards are paid in proportion to how close the forecast is to the actual result (forecast accuracy), rather than on a binary hit/miss basis. This reduces risk for participants by providing a certain amount of reward even for "close predictions.Specialization in numerical forecasting
By using continuous numerical values, such as inflation rates and government bond yields, as the target of forecasting, we encourage elaborate analysis and data-based thinking. Because it asks "to what extent" as well as "in which direction," forecasts as collective knowledge become more useful.Formation of a thoughtful participant base
The system, in which partial hits are also evaluated, and the gamification design, in which players compete for accuracy, create an environment in which "thinking users," such as investors and individuals with strong economic backgrounds, can easily participate.Correctness accuracy
The results are clear because we only deal with probabilities and numerical predictions.
In short, Trepa aims to form more intelligent and practical collective knowledge by introducing a low-risk, accuracy-oriented mechanism, as opposed to the "high risk, low accuracy, and strong gambling nature" of the traditional forecasting market.
A beta version is currently available on the Solana DappStore and a demo video is also available on X. General release will be forthcoming.
As shown below, the user predicts the numbers in a slider format and places a wager.
🚩Transition and Outlook
Trepa is a startup founded in 2024, with its parent company Trepa Labs Inc. Headquartered in Delaware, USA, with a corporate registration and a Singapore base confirmed, the company is looking to expand globally, with networks in both Asia and the United States.
The founding team consists of engineers and hackathoners with expertise in the crypto asset and blockchain space, with core members including CEO Yukshibgu, co-founder cmger, CTO Leon Meka, and engineer Vladislav Lenskii.
The idea for Trepa began with "overcoming the limitations of the traditional Yes/No type forecasting market". During the founding phase, a prototype was developed through hackathons, and a major turning point was winning the Grand Prix at the Seoulana Hackathon in the spring of 2025.
The Hackathon judging introduced it as "an innovative platform that uses a pooled approach to sentiment forecasting rather than a market one.
This award brought Solana to the attention of the Solana ecosystem and triggered recognition for both its technology and ideas. Since then, a beta version has been released to the public and already has over 2,000 users.
In the summer of 2025, we raised approximately $420,000 in a pre-seed round.
The lead investor is Colosseum, founded by the former Solana Foundation Growth Director, with additional high-profile investors including Ignight Capital and Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coinbase.
Trepa is now, public beta stage The company is operating in the
Forecasts focus on macroeconomic indicators such as inflation rates, unemployment rates, and government bond yields, and participants stake funds in anticipation of the numbers and receive compensation based on the accuracy of their forecasts.
It is expected to attract a broader user base and to be fully open to the public in the future.
💬Predictive Markets Take Hold
The last part is a consideration of the summary.
This may be a duplication for those of you who regularly call our newsletter, but I personally have a great deal of interest in the area of decentralized forecasting markets.
The reason is that we believe it has the potential to spread to the general public as a use case. We believe that this will be one of the infrastructure media functions in the future world.
SNS, mass media, niche media and newsletters, these are basically models to collect attention and monetize it through sponsorship. While this model allows for free services to users, it is optimized for sending out information that attracts attention.
As a result, inflammatory stories and stories that are not lies but incite overreaction are more likely to be spread. In addition, the most recent AI has made it possible for fake news to spread.
As a result of the democratization of information dissemination, the quality of information has been questioned, and it is now difficult for users themselves to collect essential information without bias.
The prediction market provides one guideline for this situation. Through the mechanism of betting, both sides seriously try to predict the answer, and the result of one prediction is shown in numerical form. By discussing opinions on the predictions, we can confirm our own opinions on all kinds of news.
In addition, Trepa goes further and asks for accurate numerical projections, which may make the site more informative.
As those results accumulate, it is also possible to visualize who is making reliable forecasts.
In today's world, people called analysts can predict the future as they like. If we can bet on them and get clear results, we will have more confidence in information dissemination.
While it is impossible to predict 100% of the future, we believe that the prediction market will definitely become more prevalent when considering the media of the future, and we are actively researching and writing articles on related projects that look interesting. We will continue to research and publish articles on anything that looks interesting!
This is the research for Trepa.
🔗Reference Link:HP / X
Disclaimer：I carefully examine and write the information that I research, but since it is personally operated and there are many parts with English sources, there may be some paraphrasing or incorrect information. Please understand. Also, there may be introductions of Dapps, NFTs, and tokens in the articles, but there is absolutely no solicitation purpose. Please purchase and use them at your own risk.
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Author
mitsui
A web3 researcher. Operating the newsletter "web3 Research" delivered in five languages around the world.
Contact
The author is a web3 researcher based in Japan. If you have a project that is interested in expanding to Japan, please contact the following:
Telegram：@mitsui0x
*Please note that this newsletter translates articles that are originally in Japanese. There may be translation mistakes such as mistranslations or paraphrasing, so please understand in advance.